International filed a lawsuit on Friday, Sept. S. The goal of this project is to develop a tool that can be used to. 4: Professional election forecasters. Scoring Midterm Election Forecasts Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold MarketsPredictItNo. On the eve of the 2022 U. USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. is technically illegal but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has generally laid off sites like PredictIt that function as “ trading markets . $1,589. With sports betting continuing to expand across the country, many Americans were surprised. Touch upon this story Remark In 2016, Jason Pipkin was working in a biology lab at Brandeis College, authoring papers with titles akin to “Mapping the thoughts of a fly,” when he first heard of PredictIt. Just two years before PredictIt broke onto the scene, the CFTC denied a proposal to launch similar political event contracts from the Northern American Derivatives Exchange, in part over concerns. You can upvote and downvote, like on Reddit. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. Ways to buyJOHN ARISTOTLE PHILLIPS: It's like a stock market, but for politics. Follow PredictIt Political Analysis to get a deeper understanding of how the markets react to the news and what. users in February, according to an order from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. . On the website PredictIt, people can place bets — with real US dollars — on big political events. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. 24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more. Mehmet Oz This is a highly contentious race for a seat being vacated by Republican Pat Toomey that, like in Georgia, sees a Donald Trump-endorsed celebrity candidate. . Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitorsNot only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. Consequential issues, […](Disclaimers: I work in the financial industry, though not in a way related to prediction markets. Canada: Live stream, start time, aggregate score for Nations League quarterfinal second leg;PredictItSo there's an argument that I've seen a lot over the past few years, particularly in LW-adjacent circles, that goes something like this: This post is dedicated to disagreeing with that argument, not from an anti-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position, but from a pro-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position. The Republicans were given a 65. Predictit. Reveal predictit. [1] On the ethics of insider trading. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. PredictIt is also a valuable research tool for academics and journalists who want to understand how markets forecast events. S. Join PredictIt today. In addition, you can join various forums to have discussions with like-minded folks. PredictIt to Halt Trading in February After Regulator Pulls ‘No-Action’ Letter. Windy is a prediction platform that allows users to make predictions on a. PredictIt provides many markets with futures contracts linked to political issues, ranging from ongoing policy outcomes to political elections. hide. The system delivers both the crowd’s prediction and, like the Delphi technique, allows forecasters to consider their own thinking in the light of other. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic. Anecdotically, it often has free energy, that is, places where one can earn money by having better probabilities, and where this is not too hard. Simple example of using predictit as a python library and function arguments. The top traffic source to marginalrevolution. The. No Bitcoin support. Rajiv Sethi focuses on the likelihood that PredictIt will have to wind down operations, and the messiness and gaming opportunities that will result from having to close out contracts that expire after PredictIt ends operations. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. BetOnline also has Trump at +160 but Biden at a shorter -180, with money coming in on. Predictit - Arizona Senate Race. At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting today the Federal Reserve said that it was keeping short-term. Now if we buy No shares on every candidate, we get into a situation (at least currently) where we profit no matter who wins. PredictIt and Betfair as of Tuesday morning at 11 a. Predictit is. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. PredictIt says it is not like an online gambling site because it mainly exists to supply its data to universities for academic research, one of the main reasons the U. Pricing. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. com. UPDATED Nov. “PredictIt staff are working. The presidential election will not happen until November. It’s important to keep in mind that PredictIt acts within a grey area; similar to offshore sportsbooks. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. Bitcoin. After betting big on the past two presidential. PredictItsites for prediction,By 2022, it had 80,000 active s, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very seriously. randn(100, 2), predicted_column=1, predicts=3) There are only two positional arguments data and predicted_column (because, there is more than a. More than 19 million shares were traded on the House speaker question leading up to McCarthy’s ultimate ascension this. In early 2015, PredictIt saw about 2 million total shares traded. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. And indeed, FiveThirtyEight. PredictIt is a relatively new site, and, frankly, it looks at best eerily similar to online gambling and at worst like outright fraud, yet another ‘get rich quick scheme. A larger, rival betting site, Kalshi, which takes bets on things like inflation rates and the price of gasoline, now wants to take election bets, too. By Danny Funt. Prices for each possible result (usually. 1. Discover the ultimate resource for Predictit – your one-stop destination for free, easy, and fast information!. PredictIt: The Closing of a Prediction Market. Ensure all the packages you're using are healthy and well-maintained. Lemmy is probably one of those alternatives that come very close to functioning exactly like Reddit. . Chart by author The Unwisdom Of Crowds. In order to enable researchers to take advantage of the opportunities presented by prediction markets, we make our data available to the academic community at no cost. Alternatively, they could hold onto the shares until after Election Day and get paid out $1 per share for a. Few events listed other than politics. Reply [-] rossry 4y 7. The CFTC realized that University of Victoria Wellington had turned this supposed "small scale educational" venture into a for-profit betting site. Discover the full list of predictit. 4, 2022, threatens to harm not only the value of modest investments of more than 80,000 PredictIt traders, but the quality of the anonymized data used by more than. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC alleges that PredictIt was handed off to a for-profit company called Aristotle to operate, and in turn, Aristotle was funneling money over to a subsidiary of the University called "Victoria. Pennsylvania: John Fetterman vs. Click Now. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. Introduction. 8. Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? Find out the latest odds and trends on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. . On PredictIt. You can browse various categories, such as presidential, congressional, state and local races, and see the latest prices and trends. The site seems to do things by the book, as they have operated successfully under a no-action letter from the CFTC. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. org Brags and Beats. The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. District Court for the Western District of Texas asking the Commodity. 3%: $1,329,129. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. Few events listed other than politics. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. 2023Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). BetMoose. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of political events and make predictions about the future. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. track the election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls. PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events. PredictIt 16. Forecasting is a public good, providing information to the public. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. High fees on profits and withdrawals. January 1, 2021. 12 for Democrats to win, . My position is: I've been meaning to. 5,646. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. PredictIt is an online Other site. The political betting site PredictIt places his odds of being elected president in 2024, expressed as a share price, at 23 cents, slightly below Trump’s and well below Biden’s, but far above. Whether it is U. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The site has become a mainstay in virtually all. PredictIt is somewhat larger and more active, with something like $1 million in its individual market, but that is still not much money in the grand scheme of things. PredictIt is hoping its 2024 election night goes much smoother than it did on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. I think you would be better off building something on top of Augur. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. Like Wright in Texas, Carey has made a significant effort to play up his connections to Trump, and his endorsement. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination? PredictIt is a prediction market that lets you bet on the outcome of political events. ”. Link Copied! The US government is trying to shut down PredictIt, a website that allows gambling on US elections. Buy Bitcoin in Europe. This prevents a handful of wealthy individuals from putting down thousands of. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. What I don't like about PredictIt is that they charge 5% on withdrawals plus other. report. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of US elections and political events. The turned to PredictIt because it allowed them to place wagers that were a touch more niche than standard bookmakers offered, but now the site is shutting down and will be missed by those s. # 1. PredictItThis isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. org News and Media website This domain provided by whois. PredictIt is a stock market-style prediction platform that allows users to “buy” and “sell” shares in events, with the value of their shares determined by the likelihood of the event occurring. other political & government brands and stores. PredictItIn the 2014 PredictIt approval letter, 3 the CFTC analyzed the applicant’s facts and circumstances and based approval on conditions such as capping investment and trading volumes, being operated. Other Things. November. 9% higher probability on PredictIt than FiveThirtyEight. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Last updated on: August 5, 2022, 10:45h. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Predictit's top competitors include Kalshi, Consensus Point, and Augur. Loss. elections, the odds of a “red wave” seemed pretty favorable. Both had similar residuals in 2016, both correctly classified to go for Clinton in 2016, are both likely to go for Biden in 2020 and yet have a 10 point difference between PredictIt and FiveThirtyEight. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. Our Customers. The site is now selling shares — taking bets on future political events — for 10. S. 8 million shares were traded on PredictIt for the speaker contest, jumping to 12. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. The site is now in danger of being shut down by government regulators. letter. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. 6. C. Steve Bittenbender. We use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. To put it simply, PredictIt allows customers to trade “yes” and “no” shares on the outcomes of future political events at prices ranging from $0. Donald Trump is +150, and Michelle Obama is +1600. , a U. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. PredictIt. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. On Tuesday evening, I logged on to PredictIt, America’s favorite political-betting site, to watch the Election Night chaos. withdrew its permission in August 2022, and ordered the site to shut down, saying it had. Search similar titlesPredictIt. C. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. Snyk Vulnerability Scanner. Consequential issues,. PredictIt told its U. BetMoose. 2: The media pundits. org — LessWrong [ Question ] Recommendation for a good international event betting site. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets. 99 per share. A share on PredictIt settles at $1 if the listed event comes to pass and $0 if it doesn’t, and its price fluctuates somewhere in the middle meanwhile. PredictIt. PredictIt. This map will track the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. DETROW: John Aristotle Phillips is PredictIt's CEO. PredictItCloud Era Prediction Markets: policy and public interest prediction markets like PredictIt gained traction in the early 2010’s, presumably in the advent of the cloud, along with sci-fi markets like SciCast. ValuePredictItpredictit. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. Compare your predictions with other traders and see how the market reacts to news and events. It didn't seem right that online politics gambling counts as a business, so what is the appropriate. A screen capture of PredictIt. The site is supported by Aristotle International, Inc. PredictIt and Victoria University use the results from the market for statistical analysis, market theory, and trader psychology, and as supporting data for research papers and analyses. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. PredictItBy Jacob Stern. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" 4: Investment Interest Rate/Time Value of Money. With PredictIt. Among forecasters, Nate Silver has the best track record. election is the main attraction for political futures traders today. His day job is running one of the country's largest political data. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has revoked a letter it sent last year to PredictIt organizers that vacated its. Reddit is not the first platform to attempt a gamification of crowdsourcing, though others like PredictIt have. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. Since anyone can use PredictIt, there’s no reason to think one user is better than another. PredictIt had Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. S. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. The global gambling market size is set to grow by USD 260. John Aristotle Phillips founded PredictIt, a website that lets traders bet on the outcomes of political events. ’. Site has approval of government officials. org - Top 45 predictit. random. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. Login. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. PredictIt is structurally inefficient. electoral-vote. The site slightly favors Clinton to win North Carolina, while giving an edge to Trump in Florida. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. In order to enable researchers to take advantage of the opportunities presented by prediction markets, we make our data available to the academic community at no cost. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. But, nested under their “Sports” categories is an obscure sport called “Politics”! One of the markets here is in fact the same one on PredictIt: “Trump Exit Date”. We like to assume that markets are efficient because if not, there's an opportunity for arbitrage, but for betting markets, this just isn't true. But, nested under their “Sports” categories is an obscure sport called “Politics”! One of the markets here is in fact the same one on PredictIt: “Trump Exit Date”. Per PredictIt’s no-action letter, PredictIt users cannot make more than $850 in any position. In the years following the 2014 No-Action letter, Victoria University, in conjunction with Aristotle International, would launch PredictIt, a site that became one of the most followed indicators of future political leanings in the United States, alongside sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics, which have made a name for themselves projection. Wide menu of political events covered. Similar Sites & predictit. wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Follow PredictZ. Prediction markets like PredictIt and Futuur reflect an additional layer of abstraction on top of publicly available data such as the polls analysis by FiveThirtyEight. ” PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. A project of Aristotle, a data company, and the Victoria University of Wellington. Everything has been going well since. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. These are just two examples of the larger narrative, which is that betting markets have continued to. The PredictIt website offers armchair political pundits a way to make some pocket change by placing small wagers on election outcomes and the actions of politicians. PredictItPredictIt is a platform where you can make predictions on political events and trade shares based on their outcomes. [+] Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) fill orders shortly before the close of trading on October 28, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. Proponents of political betting – including economists like Jason Furman — argue it’s a better gauge of where voters stand than polling and is a hedging tool for. save. PredictItPredictIt Political Analysis is a blog that offers insights and commentary on the latest trends and events in politics and prediction markets. “This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in the insights they provide. Likewise, if other prediction markets like Augur or Predictious take off, I will include those. com, Dr. Forecastr. PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. Washington, DC, 20003, United States. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. “The CFTC action taken on Aug. His campaign released internal polling that put him in the lead, with his support doubling once voters were told that Trump supports him. F. On the 2022 campaign trail he once joked in. S. November 14, 2022. - GitHub - Malachov/predictit: Library/framework for making predictions. 9, 2022, in US Federal. Donald Trump 34¢. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. After the market resolves, redeem your winning shares for $1 each. godaddy. Federal regulators want to kill Predictit, the website that lets you bet on political outcomes. This is why pure arbitrage that frees up capital can continue. 31. Join our Discord for discussion and help: project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN. PredictIt, the political gambling website, may get shut down - The Washington Post This site bet big on political gambling. The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. A twitter rando with little identifying information is taking credit (edit: account just went private after complaining of harassment from Predictit users so tweet is unlinkable now, was@tnim__), claiming he lobbied for it as an act of revenge for Predictit banning him years ago. However, it was the only serious site that received a regulatory waiver. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. ) from libraries like Scikit, Statsmodels or Tensorflow. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or…. g. provider of data processing and verification services. In that case, our account is credited with the lowest such profit. No. See how Predictit compares to similar products. What Was PredictIt?The CFTC is expected to render a decision Friday on whether or not Kalshi can offer election-based prediction contracts. Like stocks, investors want to buy low and then unload when the value is much higher. View election betting odds for those. Can be displayed in a shiny app, or standalone in an htmlwidget (e. PredictIt, the political. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. S. Join the community of more than 100,000 traders and analysts and get insights from PredictIt's. University officials said exchanges like PredictIt are used by research and higher education institutes to glean essential data on a variety of topics. The markets featured on the site have also become progressively wilder since inception: Some are effectively grim deathwatches, while for over a year PredictIt even ran markets on how many times. Profit. Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to justify the forced wind down in. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington [2] with support from Aristotle, Inc. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of political events. according to forecasting site PredictIt. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Spend 25% of revenues on advertising to make consumers more aware of our service. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. PredictItPredictIt is a prediction market that allows you to trade on the outcomes of political and social events. org competitors and alternatives. 44-2. Website. Prices on Smarkets rate the Republicans as 65%. Cicada: Mar 2019 #1: You made a claim , followed by " I don't know if it's true" Talking Tom: Mar 2019 #3: Betting sites have proven validity. GOP 2024 presidential nominee. By 2016, popular markets such as the Michigan primaries alone generated more than 2 million trades, in part because prominent pundits like James Carville announced on TV that they were betting on PredictIt. ”PredictItOn average Trump gets ~5. Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. ) are legal. m. If the predicted outcome does not take place, the no shares are. It was the leading platform for individuals to bet on the. , a U. com. "The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probabilities. PredictIt is a betting exchange, like a stock market. The Washington Post reported that PredictIt spokesman Will Jennings said the site was accurate 70 to 80 percent of the time, although it was difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Yes. Free mathematical football predictions and scores for today matches. 4. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minutePredictItFor its part, PredictIt “maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the . This article is for subscribers only. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. The Vegas bookmakers do not set lines to equalize betting on both side of a wager & in many cases it isn’t possible to do so, just look at the Mattress Mack World. That's exactly correct. Global Traffic Rank. 01 to $0. PredictItLibrary/framework for making predictions. Covering over 700 leagues. PredictIt, several of its traders and academic users, and technology provider Aristotle International have filed a lawsuit seeking to block the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Unlike the prices in. S. Whether they are more accurate than polls doesn't change thatLike PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). com is ranked #0 in the Unknown category and #7041165 globally in June 2023. elections, Congress, or Supreme Court, you can find the hottest markets and see how the odds change in real time. org. You will have $160 to bet on events. 00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. The betting odds website "PredictIt" is a joke (Original post) Talking Tom: Mar 2019: OP: Betting markets have proven accuracy. You can explore the latest trends, analysis, and commentary on various topics, such as Trump's influence, the 2020 election, and more. 55% of desktop visits last month, and Organic Search is the 2nd with 6. org after the election, but I was unable to join since I don't live in. Anything I write here is my opinion and not that of my employer. Two of the sites that Election Betting Odds pulls from — Betfair and Smarkets — showed DeSantis holding a substantial lead over Trump, with the Florida governor coming in at 27 percent to 27. PredictIt is a large online political prediction market, often called a "stock market for politics. PredictIt’s operating expenses are covered by charging a fee of 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment and by charging an additional 5% withdrawal fee. PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events. The models for PredictIt and PolyMarket differ significantly from overseas betting on politics. It seems like PredictIt's 10% effectively moves the point at which it isn't worth it to correct the inefficiency further out from equilibrium than in the case of free trades. Even if you see a coupon code box at the PredictIt checkout, there are several reasons why you won't always find a working discount. PredictIt has made the following announcement in response to the withdrawal: The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action.